Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2017-02-23
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.77 | 0.99 | 46352 | 17369 | 28862 | 121 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.78 | 1 | 46352 | 17573 | 28658 | 121 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.78 | 1 | 46352 | 17791 | 28446 | 115 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.76 | 0.99 | 46352 | 17260 | 28947 | 145 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.79 | 1.01 | 46352 | 18070 | 28164 | 118 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.104 | 0.134 | 0.052 | 0.019 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.09 | 0.204 | 0.104 | 0.028 | 0.009 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.045 | 0.036 | 0.03 | 0.006 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.019 | 0.03 | 0.016 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.008 | 0.026 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.105 | 0.136 | 0.053 | 0.02 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.09 | 0.202 | 0.103 | 0.028 | 0.009 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.045 | 0.038 | 0.031 | 0.007 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.018 | 0.03 | 0.016 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.025 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.103 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.011 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.092 | 0.206 | 0.105 | 0.028 | 0.009 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.047 | 0.038 | 0.03 | 0.006 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.019 | 0.029 | 0.017 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.024 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.005 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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