Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-02-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.85   1.04   45268 18482 26698 88
Day 1 forecast -0.85   1.04   45268 18645 26544 79
Day 4 forecast -0.86   1.05   45268 18870 26328 70
Day 7 forecast -0.84   1.04   45268 18373 26788 107
Day 10 forecast -0.86   1.06   45268 19124 26080 64

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.123 0.146 0.053 0.026 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.06 0.189 0.116 0.035 0.008
c3 0 0 0.003 0.031 0.037 0.038 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.015 0.032 0.015
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.006 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.125 0.147 0.055 0.027 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.058 0.186 0.114 0.034 0.007
c3 0 0 0.003 0.031 0.039 0.039 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.014 0.031 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.025
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.006

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
c1 0 0.006 0.12 0.142 0.053 0.025 0.014
c2 0 0.001 0.062 0.189 0.114 0.036 0.008
c3 0 0 0.003 0.033 0.038 0.038 0.01
c4 0 0 0.001 0.004 0.015 0.031 0.016
c5 0 0 0 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.026
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.005

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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