Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2017-01-26
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.82 | 1.02 | 41216 | 17433 | 23691 | 92 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.83 | 1.02 | 41216 | 17610 | 23518 | 88 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.84 | 1.02 | 41216 | 17843 | 23290 | 83 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.82 | 1.01 | 41216 | 17150 | 23966 | 100 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.82 | 1.01 | 41216 | 17024 | 24091 | 101 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.015 | 0.203 | 0.21 | 0.094 | 0.027 | 0.014 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.046 | 0.1 | 0.049 | 0.018 | 0.004 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.036 | 0.03 | 0.033 | 0.011 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.016 | 0.033 | 0.023 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.013 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.015 | 0.203 | 0.212 | 0.095 | 0.027 | 0.014 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.046 | 0.098 | 0.048 | 0.018 | 0.004 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.036 | 0.033 | 0.035 | 0.012 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.014 | 0.031 | 0.025 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.011 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.015 | 0.197 | 0.205 | 0.095 | 0.027 | 0.013 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.052 | 0.106 | 0.047 | 0.017 | 0.005 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.007 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.038 | 0.011 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.013 | 0.03 | 0.024 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.013 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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