Validation of ice thickness - Full domain
Bulletin date: 2017-01-19
Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ
Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness
Validation statistics summary
| Bias (m) | RMS (m) | total grids | low SIT | OK SIT | high SIT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | -0.9 | 1.09 | 40325 | 18343 | 21909 | 73 |
| Day 1 forecast | -0.9 | 1.1 | 40325 | 18481 | 21772 | 72 |
| Day 4 forecast | -0.89 | 1.09 | 40325 | 17971 | 22285 | 69 |
| Day 7 forecast | -0.87 | 1.08 | 40325 | 17229 | 23009 | 87 |
| Day 10 forecast | -0.94 | 1.12 | 40325 | 19669 | 20600 | 56 |
Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)
Definition of categories:
| Category | Sea ice thickness |
|---|---|
| c1 | <1m |
| c2 | 1 - 1.5m |
| c3 | 1.5 - 2m |
| c4 | 2 - 2.5m |
| c5 | 2.5 - 3m |
| c6 | >3m |
Best estimate vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.014 | 0.195 | 0.232 | 0.107 | 0.028 | 0.021 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.029 | 0.094 | 0.043 | 0.017 | 0.008 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.03 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.013 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.016 | 0.027 | 0.02 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.015 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT
Sea ice thickness, best estimate product
Day 1 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.014 | 0.197 | 0.235 | 0.108 | 0.028 | 0.021 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0 | 0.028 | 0.092 | 0.042 | 0.018 | 0.007 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.005 | 0.03 | 0.037 | 0.038 | 0.013 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.014 | 0.025 | 0.021 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.014 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast
Day 7 forecast vs. observations
Contingency table
| observations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| open | c1 | c2 | c3 | c4 | c5 | c6 | |||
| m o d e l |
open | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| c1 | 0 | 0.013 | 0.184 | 0.215 | 0.103 | 0.025 | 0.021 | ||
| c2 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.039 | 0.108 | 0.044 | 0.017 | 0.006 | ||
| c3 | 0 | 0 | 0.006 | 0.034 | 0.039 | 0.038 | 0.013 | ||
| c4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.004 | 0.015 | 0.027 | 0.02 | ||
| c5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.015 | ||
| c6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.001 | 0.002 | ||
See category definitions for details.
Statistical distribution
|
|
Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast
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