Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-01-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: UCL CryoSAT-2 sea ice thickness

Validation statistics summary

Bias (m) RMS (m) total grids low SIT OK SIT high SIT
Best estimate -0.92   1.11   39600 19242 20314 44
Day 1 forecast -0.92   1.12   39600 19397 20162 41
Day 4 forecast -0.95   1.14   39600 20450 19109 41
Day 7 forecast -0.93   1.12   39600 19662 19871 67
Day 10 forecast -0.93   1.13   39600 19892 19667 41

Numbers in the three rightmost columns are grid counts. Regions with high/low sea ice thickness correspond to areas with model offsets from the gridded observations outside of one standard deviation. (Standard deviations are provided in the observational product.)


Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<1m
c21 - 1.5m
c31.5 - 2m
c42 - 2.5m
c52.5 - 3m
c6>3m

Best estimate vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.224 0.252 0.096 0.028 0.019
c2 0 0 0.022 0.077 0.037 0.017 0.01
c3 0 0 0.004 0.024 0.033 0.04 0.013
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.015 0.024 0.019
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Observed sea ice thickness from CryoSAT

Sea ice thickness, best estimate product

Day 1 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.224 0.254 0.096 0.027 0.019
c2 0 0 0.022 0.076 0.037 0.017 0.01
c3 0 0 0.004 0.024 0.033 0.042 0.013
c4 0 0 0 0.003 0.014 0.022 0.02
c5 0 0 0 0 0.002 0.004 0.014
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 1 forecast

Day 7 forecast vs. observations

Contingency table

observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6
m
o
d
e
l
open 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001
c1 0 0.02 0.226 0.256 0.096 0.029 0.019
c2 0 0.001 0.02 0.075 0.038 0.017 0.009
c3 0 0 0.004 0.023 0.032 0.042 0.015
c4 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.014 0.021 0.02
c5 0 0 0 0 0.001 0.003 0.013
c6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.001

See category definitions for details.

Statistical distribution

Sea ice thickness, day 7 forecast


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